Another positive article about our housing performance locally as compared to the state of Florida! Things are definitely looking a bit better, and activity has certainly improved in January!!!
MANATEE --Realtors sold more houses in Bradenton-Sarasota in December than did their counterparts in all but three of Florida's 20 major housing markets.
Only Jacksonville, Orlando and Tampa-St. Petersburg - all more populous areas - reported more sales.
Miami and Fort Lauderdale both reported fewer sales and more drastic declines in sales than did Bradenton-Sarasota, according to statistics released Thursday by the Florida Association of Realtors.
For the year, Bradenton-Sarasota tied the Naples/Marco Island metropolitan statistical area as the state's second best performing market.
The latest statistics, which showed that local sales were down 10 percent in December compared to the same month a year earlier, were a major improvement over the statewide average, which was down 31 percent.
"We are one of the best markets in the state of Florida, which is exciting," said Dan Forbes of Re/Max Gulfstream's Forbes Team.
Many Realtors are cautiously optimistic that the market may be on the road to better days.
"All the agents I'm talking to said the last quarter of 2007 is the best they've had in two years," said Debbie Roth, president of the Manatee Association of Realtors.
There are still bargains to be had and local agents say most the movement has been in the $250,000 and below and $500,000 and above price ranges.
"Our median sales price appears to be stabilizing as well," Forbes said.
Locally, the median sales price in December was $246,900, down from $288,200 a year ago.
For the year, the Bradenton-Sarasota median price was $285,700, more than $52,000 above the statewide 2007 median.
"There are still some homes that are selling the same week or even day they go on the market," said Coldwell Banker agent Patrick McGuire.
Key factors to a sale like that are presentation, price and getting the right buyer to drive by on the right day.
"As an agent in this market, the best marketing tool you have is a great price," McGuire said.
"If you are looking for the key to the health of the real estate market, you have to look at inventory level," McGuire said.
During the boom, there were several times where there was less than two months' supply of inventory. As the market waned and more for-sale signs started popping up, inventory levels surged to 37 months' supply levels. In December, the numbers had come down considerably to about 27 months' supply, McGuire said.
Another figure that helps gauge the overall health of a market is the percentage of the asking price a buyer gets for the home after negotiations. During the boom years, many buyers were scared of losing their dream home to another offer and the number hovered around 97 percent or 98 percent. In 2007, the number stayed at 92 or 93 percent until December when it fell to 89 percent.
"This is the first time I've ever seen it fall below 90 but it's possible that it's an anomaly," McGuire said.
Forbes estimates home prices are 30 percent below what they were in 2005.
"Real estate is on sale right now," Forbes said.
That said, perception is truly reality as far as the market is concerned.
Some believe if Amendment 1 passes, more people will want to buy.
"Whether it technically helps, I think psychologically it will help," Forbes said.
So far things are moving more swiftly in 2008. Roth has two sales lined up and is seeing a lot of interest from international buyers.
"We are on sale to them because of the value of the dollar," Roth said.
Roth has had quite a few parents of IMG Academies, many of whom were previously renting, come in to look for homes because of the good prices.
"I think everyone is cautiously optimistic," McGuire said.
Lawrence Yun, senior economist for the National Association of Realtors, said despite the market troubles in 2007, the year closed out as the fifth highest on record.
In December, interest rates for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage average 6.10 percent, down from 6.14 percent the same month a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac and the Florida Association of Realtors.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Multiple Offers
I took a listing last week that had been listed with two other separate realtors over the past year. The list price had been reduced and reduced, and reduced.... I could go on (after all, I have over a year of history to cover) but in the end, when the Seller came to me after being referred by a neighbor, I wanted to make sure I wasn't the third strike!
I spent a lot of time on the market analysis. This is critical. The mistake Sellers are making is in the pricing.....If you are a seller and even 1% over where you should be, it can hurt you. There is an over-abundance of inventory, so missing the mark here is brutal.
We priced the property very competitively, not overpriced, and not really under priced....priced on the lower end of AVERAGE. The house was in above average condition. Numerous DESIRABLE upgrades. So, in essence, the house had alot of improvements, and priced on the lower end of an average price.....in other words...Priced to succeed! What I warn about most is the "chasing prices down" phenomenon which FAR to many sellers have done in the past 2 years. I can give numerous examples of why my selling strategy works.
And succeed we have on this listing......We averaged more than 1 showing per day, and received 2 offers within 10 days of having the property listed. I can not reveal the terms at this point in time, but I can assure you they are great terms. Two competing offers have driven up the price, and we can forget about that statistic of homes selling for 10% less than list price..... NO WAY! not in this case! We will end up closing with a price ABOVE list! Yes, it is possible!
There are so many benefits to getting an in depth analysis, and then looking at MANY factors in order to price properly to succeed.....and just being REALISTIC! By approaching this listing with a specific strategy, and a very solid marketing attack in the first 10 days, we accomplished what few sellers have done in this market! Forget about 1 offer, we received competing offers and will sell above list price!
If you are thinking of selling, please call me to discuss my plan!
I spent a lot of time on the market analysis. This is critical. The mistake Sellers are making is in the pricing.....If you are a seller and even 1% over where you should be, it can hurt you. There is an over-abundance of inventory, so missing the mark here is brutal.
We priced the property very competitively, not overpriced, and not really under priced....priced on the lower end of AVERAGE. The house was in above average condition. Numerous DESIRABLE upgrades. So, in essence, the house had alot of improvements, and priced on the lower end of an average price.....in other words...Priced to succeed! What I warn about most is the "chasing prices down" phenomenon which FAR to many sellers have done in the past 2 years. I can give numerous examples of why my selling strategy works.
And succeed we have on this listing......We averaged more than 1 showing per day, and received 2 offers within 10 days of having the property listed. I can not reveal the terms at this point in time, but I can assure you they are great terms. Two competing offers have driven up the price, and we can forget about that statistic of homes selling for 10% less than list price..... NO WAY! not in this case! We will end up closing with a price ABOVE list! Yes, it is possible!
There are so many benefits to getting an in depth analysis, and then looking at MANY factors in order to price properly to succeed.....and just being REALISTIC! By approaching this listing with a specific strategy, and a very solid marketing attack in the first 10 days, we accomplished what few sellers have done in this market! Forget about 1 offer, we received competing offers and will sell above list price!
If you are thinking of selling, please call me to discuss my plan!
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Have housing prices hit bottom?
Florida's best known economist says market in region has stabilized
By MICHAEL POLLICK
Florida's best known economist says the Sarasota-Manatee residential property market bottomed out in September-October and has now stabilized in both price and volume.Hank Fishkind predicts flat prices for both counties through 2010, as the region chews through excess inventories of new houses and condominiums.His findings jibe with what some Southwest Florida real estate observers have been saying and with what statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors have shown during the final months of 2007.
In November, for example, Sarasota-Bradenton Realtors sold twice as many homes as their Miami counterparts. The median price in November -- the most recent sales reports available -- was $267,700, down 4 percent from a year earlier, but an improvement from $244,300 in September and $263,900 in October. Fishkind made his own predictions for this region as part of a 33-county economic report prepared on behalf of Attorney's Title Insurance Fund Inc., a leading title insurance underwriter. His report painted Miami-Dade and Lee County as the state's most problematic areas, because of excessive condo building in South Florida and a proportionately higher level of home building during the boom in Fort Myers. Orlando has the strongest market in Florida, followed by the Tampa Bay area and Interstate 4 corridor, Fishkind said."But both Manatee County and Sarasota County are still in considerably better shape than many other areas," he said.
Fishkind said that Charlotte County continues to shake off some of the vestiges of 2004's Hurricane Charley, but that the market is in far better shape than its neighbors to the south, where speculation on investment properties was rampant during the housing run-up. "We are starting to see more normal activity," Fishkind said. "I am much more concerned about Lee County than I am about Punta Gorda."
Fishkind projects moderate rates of growth for population and employment in Manatee and Sarasota counties between now and 2010."In regard to housing growth and starts, speculative investing in the real estate market occurred in the area between 2003 and 2006 and resulted in an excessive amount of new homes in both markets," Fishkind said in his report. "This is expected to temporarily slow down the area's housing markets in the next few years, and result in household growth exceeding housing starts in both counties in the next several years. A recovery in housing starts for both counties, however, is expected to begin in 2008," he wrote.
The Sarasota market appeared to bottom out in the spring at 470 to 480 closings per month. But then a national liquidity crisis sprang to life in August, prompted by defaults on subprime mortgages issued during the feverish markets of 2003-05 and continuing into 2006.For a month or so, mortgage makers froze. As a result, sales fell to 310 in September and stayed flat at 319 in October."It seems to me that is the new bottom," Fishkind said, referring to sales in more recent months. "So I'm not seeing any major price declines, and I think volume has stabilized."
Fishkind looked at average prices for all closed residential sales in both counties, taking into account for-sale-by-owner deals as well as builder sales.In Sarasota, the average price for existing homes in Sarasota during 2007 was $330,042, a 12 percent drop from the peak of $374,107 in 2006, Fishkind reported. In Manatee County, the decline in average prices has been more severe, coming down 24 percent to $280,622 in 2007 from a peak $370,200 in 2006.The economist's forecast is predicated on the assumption that the national economy, while definitely in slow motion, will narrowly avert a full-blown recession."We have had a significant slowing to basically zero growth in the fourth quarter," he said. "The U.S. economy isn't going to start improving until the second half of '08 and into 2009."That national assumption is critically important because Florida depends on the Midwest and Northeast United States for a supply of residential real estate buyers, Fishkind acknowledged.When they suffer, Southwest Florida suffers, too, on a lagging basis, he said."Almost everybody who moves to Florida in 2008 made a decision to move in 2007," Fishkind said.
Because of that national slowdown, "we will see Florida's economy slowing in 2008 and not improving until 2009."Other economists have a more pessimistic view, leading to predictions for a more drawn-out recovery for Florida. But Fishkind maintains that the Sunshine State's historical drivers will lift it above other states in the Southeast."Florida tends to generate more jobs and population growth than any other state in the Southeastern United States, so turnaround for some parts of Florida ... will take place ahead of many other states in the Southeast," Fishkind said in a statement." Other parts of Florida, namely Miami-Dade County and Fort Myers, will not recover until later."
By MICHAEL POLLICK
Florida's best known economist says the Sarasota-Manatee residential property market bottomed out in September-October and has now stabilized in both price and volume.Hank Fishkind predicts flat prices for both counties through 2010, as the region chews through excess inventories of new houses and condominiums.His findings jibe with what some Southwest Florida real estate observers have been saying and with what statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors have shown during the final months of 2007.
In November, for example, Sarasota-Bradenton Realtors sold twice as many homes as their Miami counterparts. The median price in November -- the most recent sales reports available -- was $267,700, down 4 percent from a year earlier, but an improvement from $244,300 in September and $263,900 in October. Fishkind made his own predictions for this region as part of a 33-county economic report prepared on behalf of Attorney's Title Insurance Fund Inc., a leading title insurance underwriter. His report painted Miami-Dade and Lee County as the state's most problematic areas, because of excessive condo building in South Florida and a proportionately higher level of home building during the boom in Fort Myers. Orlando has the strongest market in Florida, followed by the Tampa Bay area and Interstate 4 corridor, Fishkind said."But both Manatee County and Sarasota County are still in considerably better shape than many other areas," he said.
Fishkind said that Charlotte County continues to shake off some of the vestiges of 2004's Hurricane Charley, but that the market is in far better shape than its neighbors to the south, where speculation on investment properties was rampant during the housing run-up. "We are starting to see more normal activity," Fishkind said. "I am much more concerned about Lee County than I am about Punta Gorda."
Fishkind projects moderate rates of growth for population and employment in Manatee and Sarasota counties between now and 2010."In regard to housing growth and starts, speculative investing in the real estate market occurred in the area between 2003 and 2006 and resulted in an excessive amount of new homes in both markets," Fishkind said in his report. "This is expected to temporarily slow down the area's housing markets in the next few years, and result in household growth exceeding housing starts in both counties in the next several years. A recovery in housing starts for both counties, however, is expected to begin in 2008," he wrote.
The Sarasota market appeared to bottom out in the spring at 470 to 480 closings per month. But then a national liquidity crisis sprang to life in August, prompted by defaults on subprime mortgages issued during the feverish markets of 2003-05 and continuing into 2006.For a month or so, mortgage makers froze. As a result, sales fell to 310 in September and stayed flat at 319 in October."It seems to me that is the new bottom," Fishkind said, referring to sales in more recent months. "So I'm not seeing any major price declines, and I think volume has stabilized."
Fishkind looked at average prices for all closed residential sales in both counties, taking into account for-sale-by-owner deals as well as builder sales.In Sarasota, the average price for existing homes in Sarasota during 2007 was $330,042, a 12 percent drop from the peak of $374,107 in 2006, Fishkind reported. In Manatee County, the decline in average prices has been more severe, coming down 24 percent to $280,622 in 2007 from a peak $370,200 in 2006.The economist's forecast is predicated on the assumption that the national economy, while definitely in slow motion, will narrowly avert a full-blown recession."We have had a significant slowing to basically zero growth in the fourth quarter," he said. "The U.S. economy isn't going to start improving until the second half of '08 and into 2009."That national assumption is critically important because Florida depends on the Midwest and Northeast United States for a supply of residential real estate buyers, Fishkind acknowledged.When they suffer, Southwest Florida suffers, too, on a lagging basis, he said."Almost everybody who moves to Florida in 2008 made a decision to move in 2007," Fishkind said.
Because of that national slowdown, "we will see Florida's economy slowing in 2008 and not improving until 2009."Other economists have a more pessimistic view, leading to predictions for a more drawn-out recovery for Florida. But Fishkind maintains that the Sunshine State's historical drivers will lift it above other states in the Southeast."Florida tends to generate more jobs and population growth than any other state in the Southeastern United States, so turnaround for some parts of Florida ... will take place ahead of many other states in the Southeast," Fishkind said in a statement." Other parts of Florida, namely Miami-Dade County and Fort Myers, will not recover until later."
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
Home prices may be leveling
REPRINT FROM TRIBUNE 1/1/08
Buyers are paying attention as sellers are dangling real estate deals
By MICHAEL POLLICK and MICHAEL BRAGA
SARASOTA HERALD TRIBUNE
Southwest Florida's sagging housing market showed signs of stabilization in November, with Sarasota-Bradenton agents selling twice as many existing single-family homes as Miami and with prices perking up from fall lows."Our area was inflated for so long," said Garrick Newman, a Re/Max agent in Bradenton. "But over the last six months, people really came down hard with prices."The state and nation are suffering lower sales rates and lower realized prices. But the Sarasota-Bradenton market fell out of bed faster than most after the boom that ended in 2005 and seems to be finding a solid footing sooner.
During November, Sarasota-Bradenton Realtors closed on 556 houses -- down 16 percent from the 664 of a year ago -- but a far less painful situation than in South Florida. In Miami, Realtors closed on only 263 houses in November, a 59 percent drop from a year earlier. In neighboring Fort Lauderdale, Realtors sold just 401 houses, down 29 percent.The median price in Sarasota-Bradenton in November was $267,700, down 4 percent from a year earlier, but an improvement from $244,300 in September and $263,900 in October, suggesting that the market might have found a bottom after a decline that has lasted just over two years.
Statewide, real estate agents closed on 8,106 homes, a 30 percent decline from a year earlier. The median slid to $215,800, a 10 percent drop from a year ago.Nationally, sales of existing single-family homes and condos rose slightly from October to November, but have plunged 20 percent during the past 12 months.Home prices nationwide continued to slide: the November median was $210,200, down 3.3 percent from a year ago and the fifth biggest annual decline on record. The median is the point where half sell for more and half sell for less.
"We're getting back to the basics of the housing market -- find a buyer and you can make a house sale, as long as the price is reasonable," said Joe Hembree, president of the Sarasota Association of Realtors.Despite the hoopla about the subprime mortgage crisis, mortgage brokers are begging for qualified customers with money to put down."We can get 15-year fixed rate money at 5 3/8 to 5 1/2 percent," said Dave Hofer of Re/Max. "Thirty-year fixed rate loans are going for 6 percent to 61/2 percent.""The problem is we don't have enough legitimate buyers. They are not motivated.
Promenade on Broadway
When the developer of the Broadway Promenade condo just north of downtown Sarasota began taking orders in spring 2004, Realtors, including Steve Ivan of the St. Armands branch of Coldwell Banker, were falling over each other trying to get to the front of the line.Buyers were finally asked to close in June 2007, but 21 of those buying the 187 units backed away, forfeiting 20 percent deposits."There are a lot of them that are not occupied yet," said Ivan, who has since sold his holdings and has four other listings for sale.One buyer picked up a fourth-floor three-two with a partial bay view in November for $399,000 -- about the same price as in 2004.Sales are picking up, says Marina Coppenrath of Coldwell Banker's The Condo Store and the sales manager for the remaining developer-owned units. She has sold 11 of the 21 defaults in the past three months."There are definitely buyers," she said.
Bradenton, Lakewood Ranch and the beaches
A Re/Max Gulfstream Realty agent in Bradenton, said most of the 70 properties her team has listed are "screaming deals."She cited two listings in Manatee County that have never been lived in, both selling at sacrifice prices. "Because we've had so many foreclosures and such a steep drop in prices, this is now one of the best markets in the country to buy in."
Anna Maria Island actually saw 2007 sales rise to 199 from 158 the prior year, according to an agent with Island Realty on Holmes Beach. The reason: "Sellers are getting realistic and buyers are taking the deals," The average price per square foot of condos, houses and vacant lots sold on the island dropped to $371 in 2007 from $653 the year before. One of the most spectacular deals that he brokered was a canal-front home, with three bedrooms and two baths, once listed for $795,000."We sold it for $525,000, and we sold it to someone who has a real estate license. When Realtors are buying, you know that's a good sign.""If prices get any more realistic, local people will be moving back out to the beach," he said.When the average price of a home on the barrier islands is $750,000, not many local jobs can support that, When they get down around $500,00, someone can sell their $350,000 mainland home and move to the beaches.
Buyers are paying attention as sellers are dangling real estate deals
By MICHAEL POLLICK and MICHAEL BRAGA
SARASOTA HERALD TRIBUNE
Southwest Florida's sagging housing market showed signs of stabilization in November, with Sarasota-Bradenton agents selling twice as many existing single-family homes as Miami and with prices perking up from fall lows."Our area was inflated for so long," said Garrick Newman, a Re/Max agent in Bradenton. "But over the last six months, people really came down hard with prices."The state and nation are suffering lower sales rates and lower realized prices. But the Sarasota-Bradenton market fell out of bed faster than most after the boom that ended in 2005 and seems to be finding a solid footing sooner.
During November, Sarasota-Bradenton Realtors closed on 556 houses -- down 16 percent from the 664 of a year ago -- but a far less painful situation than in South Florida. In Miami, Realtors closed on only 263 houses in November, a 59 percent drop from a year earlier. In neighboring Fort Lauderdale, Realtors sold just 401 houses, down 29 percent.The median price in Sarasota-Bradenton in November was $267,700, down 4 percent from a year earlier, but an improvement from $244,300 in September and $263,900 in October, suggesting that the market might have found a bottom after a decline that has lasted just over two years.
Statewide, real estate agents closed on 8,106 homes, a 30 percent decline from a year earlier. The median slid to $215,800, a 10 percent drop from a year ago.Nationally, sales of existing single-family homes and condos rose slightly from October to November, but have plunged 20 percent during the past 12 months.Home prices nationwide continued to slide: the November median was $210,200, down 3.3 percent from a year ago and the fifth biggest annual decline on record. The median is the point where half sell for more and half sell for less.
"We're getting back to the basics of the housing market -- find a buyer and you can make a house sale, as long as the price is reasonable," said Joe Hembree, president of the Sarasota Association of Realtors.Despite the hoopla about the subprime mortgage crisis, mortgage brokers are begging for qualified customers with money to put down."We can get 15-year fixed rate money at 5 3/8 to 5 1/2 percent," said Dave Hofer of Re/Max. "Thirty-year fixed rate loans are going for 6 percent to 61/2 percent.""The problem is we don't have enough legitimate buyers. They are not motivated.
Promenade on Broadway
When the developer of the Broadway Promenade condo just north of downtown Sarasota began taking orders in spring 2004, Realtors, including Steve Ivan of the St. Armands branch of Coldwell Banker, were falling over each other trying to get to the front of the line.Buyers were finally asked to close in June 2007, but 21 of those buying the 187 units backed away, forfeiting 20 percent deposits."There are a lot of them that are not occupied yet," said Ivan, who has since sold his holdings and has four other listings for sale.One buyer picked up a fourth-floor three-two with a partial bay view in November for $399,000 -- about the same price as in 2004.Sales are picking up, says Marina Coppenrath of Coldwell Banker's The Condo Store and the sales manager for the remaining developer-owned units. She has sold 11 of the 21 defaults in the past three months."There are definitely buyers," she said.
Bradenton, Lakewood Ranch and the beaches
A Re/Max Gulfstream Realty agent in Bradenton, said most of the 70 properties her team has listed are "screaming deals."She cited two listings in Manatee County that have never been lived in, both selling at sacrifice prices. "Because we've had so many foreclosures and such a steep drop in prices, this is now one of the best markets in the country to buy in."
Anna Maria Island actually saw 2007 sales rise to 199 from 158 the prior year, according to an agent with Island Realty on Holmes Beach. The reason: "Sellers are getting realistic and buyers are taking the deals," The average price per square foot of condos, houses and vacant lots sold on the island dropped to $371 in 2007 from $653 the year before. One of the most spectacular deals that he brokered was a canal-front home, with three bedrooms and two baths, once listed for $795,000."We sold it for $525,000, and we sold it to someone who has a real estate license. When Realtors are buying, you know that's a good sign.""If prices get any more realistic, local people will be moving back out to the beach," he said.When the average price of a home on the barrier islands is $750,000, not many local jobs can support that, When they get down around $500,00, someone can sell their $350,000 mainland home and move to the beaches.
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